CEOs and Companies Between Headwinds and Innovative Strength
Today I read the latest economic report from the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (IHK). It conveys neither a spirit of optimism nor a sense of crisis. Instead, there is a noticeable restraint. Investments are being reviewed, not celebrated. Decisions are not being accelerated; they are being postponed. The figures appear sober and factual – yet between the lines, something else emerges: uncertainty.
And this is precisely where things become interesting for CEOs and senior leaders. In periods when forecasts offer little guidance, leadership becomes decisive. It is not the next market outlook that matters most, but inner clarity. Not the economic cycle, but the question: How do we position ourselves now?
Between headwinds and innovative strength, there is no standstill – there is a leadership moment.
What does this mean in practice for CEOs?
IHK Germany forecasts economic stabilisation at a low level. This outlook is based on a business survey that paints the following fragile picture:
Business expectations remain in negative territory
Only 16% of companies expect better business performance over the next twelve months, while 25% anticipate deterioration. The expectations balance stands at minus nine points – despite a slight improvement. This is not a breakthrough; it is caution. For CEOs and senior leaders, this means that expectation management is increasingly becoming a core leadership and organisational capability.
What matters less is strict alignment with macroeconomic indicators and more the ability to remain capable of action through clarity, confidence, and strategic consistency. In this uncertain environment, clear prioritisation of strategic initiatives, transparent communication of risks and opportunities, and a consistent focus on value creation and differentiation become essential. Resources must be deployed selectively – not every initiative currently justifies investment or budget allocation. At the same time, every measure requires a high degree of resilience and disciplined execution.
Investment and hiring intentions remain cautious.
Currently, only a small proportion of companies (23%) plan to increase investment, while a larger share (31%) anticipate reductions; restraint also dominates hiring plans. Many organisations are therefore shifting into a defensive mode. The central challenge is to ensure that cautious stabilisation does not lead to strategic paralysis. Resilience does not mean indiscriminate cost-cutting; it means intelligent resource allocation. What matters are targeted investments in productivity, digitalisation, and efficiency; a critical review of organisational structures to minimise frictional losses; and the consistent development of leadership capabilities. Sustainable competitive advantages arise less from maximum expansion than from structural excellence and clear priorities.
Labour costs, domestic demand, and political framework conditions are key risks.
Fifty-nine per cent of business leaders cite labour costs as the greatest risk, closely followed by domestic demand and economic policy conditions. These are factors you cannot control directly. But you can control how your organisation responds to them.
- Review your pricing strategy rigorously.
Increase operational efficiency – not selectively, but systematically.
Diversify customer and sales structures. - And above all: avoid a victim mentality. Leadership in challenging times means not translating external uncertainty into internal insecurity.
As a German living in Switzerland, I am naturally also interested in SECO’s economic outlook. It points to a moderate improvement in economic performance (1.1% higher than in 2025) – yet uncertainty remains high here as well. For 2027, normalisation to 1.7% is expected, provided that global economic conditions stabilise. But will they stabilise?
Slight upward revision of growth for 2026
The increase in the growth forecast from 0.9% to 1.1% may appear marginal. Yet it carries an important psychological signal: it suggests neither a recession nor an economic boom, but a phase of stable, moderate growth. For Swiss CEOs, this means now is the right time to prepare for structural change. Above all, we need strategic flexibility, stronger scenario capabilities across management teams, and clear early-warning indicators in relevant markets. Companies that steer professionally in such an environment and align their organisations deliberately lay the foundation to benefit disproportionately during the next upswing.
International framework conditions remain a key influencing factor.
International conditions remain a central driver, with the forecast assuming that existing tariffs will remain unchanged. Personally, I doubt this. The strong dependence on global economic dynamics will persist, continuing to place pressure on companies. For Swiss CEOs, this means deliberately testing supply chains for robustness, assessing geopolitical risks not only operationally but strategically, and developing alternative scenarios for international markets. Resilience emerges less from isolation than from intelligently designed, flexible interconnectedness.
High uncertainty despite positive tendencies
The “slight brightening” mentioned in the economic forecast explicitly highlights the continued high level of uncertainty. This fundamentally changes the requirements for effective leadership. CEOs, therefore, need clarity of vision, consistency in execution, and emotional stability within the leadership team. Employees sense uncertainty faster than any economic statistic. They observe how the leadership team reacts – not only what it says.
What truly matters now: make resilience a leadership responsibility.
In both countries, a similar pattern emerges: no dramatic crisis – but no tailwind either. It is precisely in such phases that long-term competitiveness is determined. Three elements characterise resilient organisations:
- Focus instead of activism
Prioritise radically. Eliminate distractions. - Transparent communication
Speak openly about challenges – without alarmism.
Employees need orientation, not sugar-coating. - Strengthening internal stability
Resilience begins with leadership.
How clear is your stance?
How consistent are your decisions?
How credible is your communication?
It is not during the boom years that excellent leadership becomes visible. During the transformation years, you have the opportunity to demonstrate your true leadership capability.